Senate’s casino projection estimates don’t add up

Regardless of how you do the simple arithmetic, the numbers simply don't add up. Beacon Hill's occupants continue to mislead the public and themselves.

LETTER: Senate’s casino projection estimates don’t add up


With the senate version of the casino bill out, and the projections of gross revenues ranging from $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, the question becomes — where are they getting their figures from, and how did they get to those numbers? The answer to the former is: from the gambling industry itself.

The Legislature has no expertise in calculating anything like this, so they’re relying on a group that has only a self-interested business motive for providing market figures.

As to how the numbers are being calculated — that is the mystery. The governor’s commission in 2008 calculated that $700 million could be pulled back from the Connecticut and Rhode Island casinos. The projected hit on the state lottery has been estimated at 3 to 8 percent, and based on the most recent revenues, at 5 percent, that’s $225 million; at 8 percent, that’s $360 million.

So where is the remaining $800 million to $900 million coming from? Massachusetts residents? No, especially with the lack of population growth. From other states? Think again. Maine already has a slot operation in Portland, and they will expand to the Freeport area if we go this way. New Hampshire has said they’ll go slots if we go casinos.

So how do we make up the local aid loss from the lottery hit? Our legislators are grasping for anything that provides money, but the long-term damage to local aid and elsewhere will be irreversible.


Sherman Everhart
Middleborough