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Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The Seduction of Irrational Projections

Just like Massachusetts.




Newsbite: Budget Officer Tells Governor Christie His Gambling Revenue Forecasts are Too High

David Rosen, the budget officer for the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services has told New Jersey politicians that their estimates for business taxes, online gaming and other revenues sources will fall short by $800m.

Rosen told the Senate Budget Committee that online gaming revenues would be around $30 million, $150 million less than administration estimates, “And that’s optimistic.”

State Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff has separately told the Committee that current year revenue income estimates are being reduced by $132m for the financial year ending Jun 30.

On being challenged by the Committee on the $180m planned revenues from newly regulated online gaming, Sidamon-Eristoff insisted: “That’s what we have budgeted, and it remains our expectation that we’ll get the funds.”

Lower than expected revenues are expected for several reasons: there have been delays which mean that gaming will start later than expected and the recent ruling against Rational group’s purchase of the Atlantic Club Casino means PokerStars won’t be in the market early, if at all.

Governor Christie showed his famous charm last year, when he called Rosen “the Dr. Kevorkian of the numbers.”
 

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